I’m not really surprised that Rick Santorum, the one-time Pennsylvania senator with a record of hostility toward many, including the growing Latino population, is actually gaining in support in Iowa – the state that will have its presidential caucuses next week.
The Republican primary is going to consist of many, many voters who are desperate to vote for Anybody But Mitt (as in Romney). They’re even willing to turn to a guy who (if he were to get the nomination) would be a blatant statement by the GOP voters that they care less about any of the party leader rhetoric about the need to appeal to Latino voters.
AS FAR AS I’m concerned, the fact that this is the way the Republican electorate is behaving is the exact explanation for the apparent contradiction that came out in a new study released this week by the Pew Hispanic Center.
The focal point of its study is that Latinos are disgusted with President Barack Obama on account of the fact that he’s willing to play along with the conservative ideologue desires when it comes to immigration and increased deportations.
Fifty-nine percent of all Latinos questioned by Pew said they disapproved of Obama because of the increase in deportations that have occurred during his administration.
Only 27 percent said they “approved” of the president’s conduct – which is something that he is doing to try to persuade the conservative ideologues to lighten up their opposition toward serious immigration reform. Of course, those ideologues merely use it to boost their demands for more deportations; then blame Obama for not giving it to them.
SO YES, THERE are many Latinos who are disgusted with the fact that Obama didn’t bother to address immigration reform when there was a chance to squeeze it through Congress (preferring to push for healthcare reform instead). And the fact that he appears more interested in appeasing the ideologues rather than pushing for needed reform doesn’t bolster his Latino backing.
Yet there’s no way that this “disgust” is going to translate into Latino votes for a Republican candidate. Any party whose backers are now turning to Santorum as an option for president isn’t going to get our support.
Which is why that same Pew study shows that Latinos will vote by a 2-1 ratio for Obama over any Republican nominee. In short, the same ratio of support that Latinos gave Obama over John McCain in the 2008 election cycle.
Specifically, Pew says Latinos would vote 68 percent to 23 percent for Obama over Mitt Romney, and 69 percent to 23 percent over Rick Perry.
SO EVEN THE candidate (Romney) who the political pundits claim is the Republican Party’s best chance to actually beat Obama come Nov. 6 would still lose the Latino vote overwhelmingly.
Keep in mind that the Pew study says that Obama would only beat Romney by a 49 percent to 47 percent vote among all voters (regardless of ethnicity). Which could well mean a virtual tie – with Latinos becoming the potential to break a tie in any Obama/Romney election.
Should that become the reality of the 2012 general election cycle. But that seems to be the “nightmare scenario” for a large share of the Republican electorate.
So in the election cycle that seems destined to be the one where voters pick for the person they “hate” less, it is really starting to look like the GOP “disgust” level is going to wind up doing themselves in.
IN FACT, THAT Pew study also showed that only 12 percent of Latinos think the Republican Party is more concerned about Latinos. It can be spun as being a significant boost, since a similar study by Pew two years ago showed only 6 percent of Latinos thought highly of the GOP.
But 12 percent? That’s as bad as the perception of all people in this country when it comes to Congress (13 percent approval, according to the Gallup Organization).
And that is bad!
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