Of the half-dozen primary elections to be held by Democrats in the next four weeks, most are fairly sure bets – no one expects Obama to take West Virginia or Hillary R. Clinton to win in Oregon.
PUERTO RICO IS about the only remaining primary where there is even the slightest doubt about who could be victorious. Obama would have a lot to gain by trying to show he can have an impact on the Caribbean island commonwealth – which gets to send delegates to the Democratic National Convention, but gets no say come the Nov. 4 general elections.
Now the simple fact of Campaign ’08 is that Obama did a lousy job of gaining the support of Latino voters. With the exception of his home state of Illinois and Virginia, Clinton has taken a majority of the Hispanic vote in every single primary and caucus.
In states with significant Latino populations (California and Texas), the votes of people with ethnic ties to Latin America were a significant reason for her winning the overall primaries.
Obama’s primary campaign focus on gaining African-American votes and that of the Youth of America have created the perception amongst Hispanic people that Obama doesn’t care about their situation (even though one could argue that his stance on various issues make him the most sympathetic of all the presidential candidates toward Latinos).
Barack Obama meets potential voters last week at a taqueria in Oregon. Here's hoping he fully appreciates Latinos are not all alike, and that he has a firm grasp on a stance toward Puerto Rico statehood. Photograph provided by Obama for America.SHOULD HE MANAGE not to screw up in the next few weeks and succeed in winning the Democratic nomination for president, Obama will have to make a priority of winning over the minds and hearts of Latino voters – many of us who were willing to support Clinton because we had at least heard of her before and knew her to not be hostile to our interests.
Gaining the support of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (who is of Mexican ethnicity on his mother’s side of the family) is considered by many to be one way Obama will try to sway Latino voters to back him against John McCain.
But another means could be “taking” Puerto Rico. Wouldn’t it be nice for Obama if he could finish up the primary season by gaining a victory in a blatantly Latino place (surprise, surprise – nearly 98 percent of Puerto Rico’s population is “Hispanic”).
A Puerto Rico victory (or even a strong showing) would not change the overall statistics of the primary that show most Hispanic people preferring Clinton. But it would be the ultimate proof of “perception equals reality.”
IT WOULD BE a case of Obama being able to say he had made changes and was able to reach out to one segment of the Latino population in this country.
That fact could then be used to try to reach out to other segments. It’s no guarantee to work – there are times when Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans have as little use for each other as they have for the nativist fools in this country who try to lump Latinos into one group so they can dismiss them all.
But it would help erase the image of Obama being a complete failure when it comes to reaching out to people with Latin American origins.
What is helpful is that it is not out of the question for Obama to do well come the June 1 primary.
WHAT MANY POLITICAL observers have failed to observe when they discuss the Hispanic vote is that Latino voters do not make up a singular bloc. There are differences, and evidence that Puerto Rico will not go the way of the Latinos who live on the mainland.
The places where Clinton has done well are the ones that are dominated a strong Mexican-American presence. Places where other Spanish-speaking ethnicities are dominant give Clinton less-strong support.
Obama’s Latino vote victory in Virginia was attributed to the fact that most of the Hispanic population in that state is in the part that is suburban Washington, D.C., and consists of people from many central and South American nations – rather than people with ties to Mexico.
In Illinois, Obama took 52 percent of the Latino vote in the Feb. 5 primary, winning big margins in the wards in Chicago that are made up of Puerto Rican-oriented neighborhoods – playing big off the fact that Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., one of the biggest Puerto Rican politicos in this country, was an early Obama supporter.
THAT OVERCAME THE fact that Mexican-oriented neighborhoods in Chicago gave their support to Clinton, following the same trends that occurred nationally.
Similar trends occurred in New York, where Obama gained some backing in Puerto Rican communities, but not enough to overcome Clinton support elsewhere in the city in their Feb. 5 primary.
It will be curious to see whether Puerto Ricans who remain on the island will feel the same as their mainland brethren, or whether those who have come to the United States proper have somehow been altered by their urban experience away from tropical heat and sun.
Clinton is taking nothing for granted. Although she has yet to come to the island to campaign, potential first gentleman Bill and daughter Chelsea have already campaigned in Puerto Rico on her behalf, and have gotten some of the state’s super-delegates to pledge to back her.
BY COMPARISON, OBAMA is planning to send his wife to San Juan some time this week for an initial campaign stop. Thus far, that’s it.
Let’s hope that is not the lone appearance for the near future, because the Obama campaign runs the risk of being drowned out of the Puerto Rico picture if they wait until the days before the primary to start seriously campaigning.
It will also be interesting to see the degree to which Obama understands that Puerto Ricans are a unique bloc with their own issues. That stance he has on immigration is irrelevant (Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens by birth), but he had better have a firm stance on statehood.
Obama ought to be creating the impression that he can reach out for Latino votes. He ought to be throwing resources into trying to gain this victory that would so greatly help the Latino image he wants to create to win against Republican opponent John McCain come November.
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EDITOR’S NOTES: Puerto Ricans can’t remember the last time political people were so willing (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/05/11/2008-05-11_extended_race_great_news_for_puerto_rico-3.html) to pay attention to them. It will last through June 1.
With more delegates at stake than what are offered in 27 states, the campaigns ought to be (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-puertorico_24pol.ART.State.Edition1.46c76ca.html) making a priority of Puerto Rico. At least Barack Obama has had San Juan-based campaign offices in place since early April.
Hillary Clinton’s dreams of pulling off a primary victory against Obama (http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/AustinHill/2008/05/11/%E2%80%9Cit%E2%80%99s_over%E2%80%9D_for_hillary_not_so_fast%E2%80%A6) at the last minute include visions of Puerto Rico.
Even televangelist Pat Robertson’s broadcast news network realizes the significance that Puerto Rico can play (http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/370813.aspx) in the Democratic presidential primary.
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1 comments:
For someone who claims to know about Puertorican politics, you're pretty clueless.
PUERTO RICO IS about the only remaining primary where there is even the slightest doubt about who could be victorious.
Not so. Most of the senior political establishment on both the Pro-Statehood and Pro-Commonwealth parties have lined up behind Clinton. The governor, who was recently indicted by the feds and has taken a more pro-sovereignty position, supports Obama. That's no help at all. Clinton will win P.R. and it won't even be close.
Obama’s primary campaign focus on gaining African-American votes and that of the Youth of America have created the perception amongst Hispanic people that Obama doesn’t care about their situation
That's a funny statement for someone who goes on to say how Latinos are not a monolithic group.
[I]t would help erase the image of Obama being a complete failure when it comes to reaching out to people with Latin American origins.
The unstated premise, which I don't buy for a split second, is that because Obama was not able to win most Latino votes against Clinton, he won't be able to do so against McCain. The Democrats, Latinos and otherwise, had two great choices in this primary cycle. Once Obama starts going head-to-head against McCain and discussing issues, the majority of them will line up with Obama.
[H]e had better have a firm stance on statehood.
He better not have a firm stance on statehood but rather, a firm stance on self-determination. For the U.S., Puerto Rico's status boils down to whether it will become a state or not. But in Puerto Rico, the status discussion involves the full suite of non-territorial alternatives. Obama shouldn't talk about whether he believe statehood is/is not a good thing, but rather which alternatives and which process could/should be followed.
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